What the percentage means
Each figure is the chance that a global Codex reset is announced before the window closes: 24 hours from now, or 48. It is a statement about everyone's limits, not about your own weekly or 5-hour clock.
How the model works
The model looks at the most recent completed gaps between verified resets, gives newer gaps more weight, and turns that pace into a daily rate. The 24-hour and 48-hour odds follow from the rate, and the ranges in the table show how far the estimate could reasonably be off given how few resets there are to learn from.
Tibo's everyday posts, jokes and hints are shown for context only. They do not raise or lower the number, because testing showed that guessing from tone made the forecast worse.
When Tibo makes a promise
An explicit public commitment is treated differently from a hint. The model takes it as an official signal, and the odds jump to a fixed commitment level, 89%, or 99% when the promise names a date, range or time, until the reset is confirmed or the window passes.
What it is not
- It is not a schedule or a leak from OpenAI.
- It is not a prediction about your personal limits.
- It is not a guarantee: resets have landed on low-odds days, and a high number can still pass without one.
The model is labelled experimental by its authors. Where the data and the model come from.